CNN senior political analyst
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Why is the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll released Wednesday different from all other polls? Because it shows Sen. Hillary Clinton passing a significant political milestone.
For the first time, a majority of Democrats nationwide supports Clinton for their party's nomination. Clinton's support in the Washington Post-ABC News poll jumped 12 points from last month, to 53 percent. She's 33 points ahead of her closest competitor, Sen. Barack Obama.
That establishes Clinton as the clear national front-runner. Being front-runner means being a target of criticism from other Democrats.
But does it mean she's likely to get the nomination?
Well, yes, if you look at the record. Which CNN did going back to the 1980 election. Every candidate who has gotten majority support in polls taken the year before the election has gone on to win the nomination.
Al Gore and George Bush both reached 50 percent in their parties in 1999. So did Bob Dole in 1995, George H.W. Bush in 1991 and 1987, and Walter Mondale in 1983.
What's behind the Clinton surge? Fifty-seven percent of Democrats think she's the candidate with the best chance to win the White House. That number went up 14 points in September. She also leads as the candidate who best reflects the Democratic Party's values.
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-Chris McLeod-
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