Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Clinton Leads Giuliani in Swing States

So listen, what we already knew is making headlines. We all knew Hillary Clinton could beat Giuliani in the General Election. In fact I've always believed she's the best candidate to beat him. Of course we don't know that he will be the Republican nominee, as he is behind in some of the key primary states, although he's ahead nationally. However, presuming Clinton is the Democratic nominee (and I think we have good reason to feel good that that may be the case), and Giuliani is the Republican nominee, Clinton is doing well matched up against him!

Check out the following new stats. I got this link from Huffingtonpost.com :

From Quinnepec University:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1109

October 10, 2007 - Clinton Express Rolls Through Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 43; OHIO: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 40; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Giuliani 42

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is overwhelming Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic primary field, and slowly increasing her lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Sen. Clinton's support appears to be as deep as it is wide. In Ohio, 74 percent of her supporters say they are not too likely or not likely at all to change their mind. In Florida, 59 percent of her supporters are unlikely to change their mind; in Pennsylvania it's 56 percent.

Giuliani voters are less committed, as no more than 39 percent in any state say they are unlikely to change their mind.

Clinton and Giuliani dominate their party primaries in each state, even though voters say Obama and Arizona Sen. John McCain are more principled in their decision-making.

Matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
  • Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 43 percent, breaking a 44 - 44 percent tie September 12;
  • Ohio: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 40 percent, compared to 47 - 40 percent September 6;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Giuliani 48 - 42 percent, up from 46 - 44 percent August 23.
"The news just keeps getting better for Sen. Clinton. She has a Democratic primary lead over Sen. Obama ranging from 27 to 34 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and is widening her margin over the Republican hopefuls in each of those three critical states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The candidates who trail Sen. Clinton and hope that they can pry voters away from her should wake up and smell the coffee. Not only is she far, far ahead, but a much greater share of her voters say they are unlikely to change their minds than those committed to other Democrats. This should not be any surprise. Sen. Clinton has been a favorite of Democratic activists for the past 15 years and benefits greatly from being Bill Clinton's wife - since he is probably the most popular Democrat in America," Brown added.

Many Democrats think Clinton has the nomination "locked up," 44 percent in Florida, 43 percent in Ohio and 31 percent in Pennsylvania.

Very few Republican voters think Giuliani has the nomination "locked up," 14 percent in Florida, 11 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania.

"Mayor Giuliani's lead over his Republican counterparts remains stable, but the vast, vast majority of Republicans don't believe he has the nomination locked up, and even six in ten of his supporters say they are somewhat or very likely to change their mind," Brown said.

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More numbers and stats can be found at the link!

Chris McLeod


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